The renewal follows a successful initial partnership, in which Columbia’s latest peer-reviewed climate science was integrated into Aon’s Impact Forecasting tropical cyclone catastrophe model suite. As a result, this year’s release of Impact Forecasting’s Hurricane Model v3.0 includes advanced climate change perspectives in all stochastic runs.
The second phase of the partnership will continue to explore the impacts of climate model biases on future tropical cyclone risks. For example, Columbia’s research has indicated that recent climate model simulations predict excessive warming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean due to greenhouse gases.
This would imply that models may potentially overestimate cyclone activity in the Pacific and underestimate the severity in the Atlantic. Future research seeks to refine and quantify these uncertainties, leveraging improved climate models to better predict tropical cyclone risks and subsequent losses in Aon’s Impact Forecasting model.
Patrick Kelly, Head of Climate Analytics for North America at Aon, commented on the announcement of the renewal: “Climate risk across geographies and perils is interconnected and represents a significant area of uncertainty for the re/insurance industry.”
“Aon and Columbia will continue to work together to understand how global climate factors influence multi-peril and multi-region losses. This research will help global organisations navigate volatility, build resilience, and ultimately shape better business decisions.”
